課程名稱 |
氣候變異與預測 Climate Variability and Predictability |
開課學期 |
107-1 |
授課對象 |
理學院 大氣科學研究所 |
授課教師 |
盧孟明 |
課號 |
AtmSci7081 |
課程識別碼 |
229 M8380 |
班次 |
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學分 |
3.0 |
全/半年 |
半年 |
必/選修 |
選修 |
上課時間 |
星期一7,8,9(14:20~17:20) |
上課地點 |
大氣系A100 |
備註 |
總人數上限:47人 |
Ceiba 課程網頁 |
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1071AtmSci7081_ |
課程簡介影片 |
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核心能力關聯 |
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖 |
課程大綱
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課程概述 |
氣候變異概指由大氣、海洋、陸表共同組成的氣候系統相對於三十年或更長時期平均狀態的偏離程度,重要現象有以週、月、季、年為時間單位的短期氣候變化,以及與其相依相存的年代(十年)、多年代、世紀等長週期緩慢變化。氣候變異的發生機制決定於大氣、海洋、陸表交互作用的過程,了解這些過程以及各主要變異模態對全球和區域氣候的影響是發展氣候預測的科學基礎。
本課程著重在時間尺度在三十年之內的氣候自然變化和預測,不包含尺度更長的氣候變遷或人為因素對氣候影響等課題。主要對象為碩博士班研究生,側重了解氣候變異主模態的現象與形成機制,氣候模式對氣候變異的模擬和預測能力,氣候可預測度來源的分析與解釋,氣候變異主模態與東南亞和西北太平洋以及臺灣天氣與氣候的關係。約三分之二的課程內容為講述動力氣候基本概念與文獻閱讀和討論,另三分之一為全球觀測和預測資料分析及討論。為加強對課程內容的了解,將有作業和期中考試,也將由學生在課程範圍內自己挑選想深入了解的研究題目在課堂討論並撰寫期末報告。 |
課程目標 |
1. To understand climate science as a process: how it is done, what skills are involved, how it applies to climate services
2. To understand issues in climate prediction
3.To understand issues in identifying the drivers of regional weather and climate extremes
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課程要求 |
具備動力氣候學、統計分析等基本知識 |
預期每週課後學習時數 |
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Office Hours |
另約時間 |
指定閱讀 |
There is no official textbook for this course. We will discuss relevant papers for each topic. The following documents are required to read. Some papers in the references therein will be selected as required readings.
1. Christensen, J.H., K. Krishna Kumar, E. Aldrian, S.-I. An, I.F.A. Cavalcanti, M. de Castro, W. Dong, P. Goswami, A. Hall, J.K. Kanyanga, A. Kitoh, J. Kossin, N.-C. Lau, J. Renwick, D.B. Stephenson, S.-P. Xie and T. Zhou, 2013: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. (https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter14_FINAL.pdf)
2. WCRP, 2018: Climate and Ocean - Variability, Predictability and Change Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. WCRP Publication No.: 14/2018. (http://www.clivar.org/sites/default/files/documents/CLIVAR%20Science%20Plan_Final.pdf)
3. WWRP, 2018: WWRP/WCRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) Phase I Final Report. WWRP 2018-2/ WCRP Report No. 6/2018. (https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/WWRP_2018_2_S2S_Phase_I_web.pdf)
4. WWRP, 2018: WWRP/WCRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) Phase II Proposal. WWRP 2018-4/ WCRP Report No. 11/2018.
(https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/WWRP_2018_4_S2S_Phase_II_Proposal.pdf)
5. Palmer, Tim, 2006: Predictability of Weather and Climate. Cambridge University Press. Online ISBN: 9780511617652 (https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511617652) *** Chapters 1&2 ***
6. Hartmann, Dennis L., 2016: Global Physical Climatology (2nd Edition), Text Book, Elsevier, ISBN: 978-0-12-328531-7 *** Chapter 8 ***
7. Li, T. and P.-C. Hsu, 2017: Fundamentals of Tropical Climate Dynamics, Text Book, Springer, ISBN 978-3-319-59595-5. *** Chapter 1 ***
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參考書目 |
1. NRC. 2010. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-15183-2
2. NRC. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
3. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Volume 100, Third Edition (International Geophysics), by Daniel S. Wilks. 2011. Academic Press.
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評量方式 (僅供參考) |
No. |
項目 |
百分比 |
說明 |
1. |
作業 |
50% |
配合每週指定閱讀須繳交至多2頁心得報告 |
2. |
期中簡報 |
20% |
依課程內容自選主題進行小論文研究,期中簡報含目標、方法、資料、預期結果等研究規劃 |
3. |
期末報告 |
30% |
依課程內容自選主題進行小論文研究,期末繳交小論文 |
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週次 |
日期 |
單元主題 |
第1週 |
9/10 |
Introduction - course overview
Required reading: CLIVAR Science Plan_Final.pdf <at> http://www.clivar.org/documents/climate-and-ocean-%E2%80%93-variability-predictability-and-change-science-plan-and-implementation |
第2週 |
9/17 |
Climate mean state and variability - Annual cycle, Global monsoon, Asian monsoon |
第3週 |
10/1 |
Major modes of climate variability (based on IPCC AR5) |
第4週 |
10/08 |
Basic concepts of weather and climate predictability |
第5週 |
10/15 |
MJO Topic Series Lectures:
1. Equatorial wave dynamics (Prof. Bin Wang on 10/15 at CWB)
2. Simple tropical atmospheric and oceanic models (Prof. Tim Li on 10/16 at CWB)
3. Madden-Julian Oscillation: Current Status and Challenge (Prof. Hyemi Kim on 14:20 at NTU)
4. Workshop on Intraseasonal oscillations and extended-range prediction of persistent weather events (10/18-19 at NTU) |
第6週 |
10/22 |
MJO and Tropical Waves
1. Physical process (Guest Lecturer: Professor Chung-Hsiung Sui)
2. Review and discuss what we have learned during the past week's topical series lectures |
第7週 |
10/29 |
[S2S] Modes of mid- and higher-latitude intraseasonal variability (1) |
第8週 |
11/05 |
[S2S] Modes of mid- and higher-latitude intraseasonal variability (2) |
第9週 |
11/12 |
ENSO dynamics and prediction (1) (guest lecturer: Professor Yu-heng Tseng) (a joint class with Dynamic Climatology of Prof, Sui) |
第10週 |
11/19 |
ENSO dynamics and prediction (2) |
第11週 |
11/26 |
[S2S] Predictability and model uncertainty - S2S Prediction |
第12週 |
12/03 |
[S2S] Tropical-extratolical interaction at the subseasonal time scale |
第13週 |
12/10 |
Decadal and multidecadal variability (guest lecturer: Professor Yen-Ting Hwang) |
第14週 |
12/17 |
Tropical Cyclones – subseasonal to decadal variability |
第15週 |
12/22 |
Regional climate – Extreme weather |
第16週 |
12/24 |
Regional climate – East and Southeast Asia rainfall variability and prediction
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第17週 |
01/07 |
Final report presentation and discussion |
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